|
|
Assumptions Used
|
|
|
|
Mortality – Turnover (resale)
due to death
|
|
Withdrawal – Turnover (resale)
due to reasons other than mortality
|
|
1994 Group Annuity
Mortality Table rates:
|
|
Rates asumed:
|
|
Age
|
Male
|
Female
|
|
55
|
0.44%
|
0.23%
|
|
60
|
0.80%
|
0.44%
|
|
65
|
1.45%
|
0.86%
|
|
70
|
2.37%
|
1.37%
|
|
75
|
3.72%
|
2.27%
|
|
80
|
6.21%
|
3.94%
|
|
85
|
9.72%
|
6.77%
|
|
90
|
15.29%
|
11.63%
|
|
95
|
23.36%
|
18.62%
|
|
100
|
31.72%
|
27.64%
|
|
|
|
|
Age
|
Rate
|
|
70 to 79
|
5%
|
|
80 to 84
|
5%
|
|
80 to 89
|
5%
|
|
90 to 94
|
10%
|
|
95 to 99
|
65%
|
|
100 and over
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
| New Resident Profile |
50% probability – age 70 female
12.5% probability – age 70 male
37.5% probability – age 70 male and age 70 female
|
| Manor Resale |
- Manor assumed to be resold in the year when the youngest resident in the manor dies
The number of vacant manors are assumed to remain at the current level
- Factors not utilized in study due to unpredictability
Real estate trends
Housing market fluctuations
Competition from other senior residential communities
Unexpected dramatic improvement in life expectancy
|
|
|
|
Results of Study
|
|
20-Year Projection
|
|
Year
|
Number
of Manors
projected
to be
Resold
|
Total
Number
of Manors
|
Projected
Resale %
|
Year |
Number
of Manors
projected
to be
Resold
|
Number
of Manors
Resold
|
Projected
Resale %
|
| 2007 |
648
|
6,678
|
7.9%
|
2017
|
563
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2008 |
669
|
6,678
|
10.0%
|
2018 |
562
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2009 |
634
|
6,678
|
9.5%
|
2019 |
560
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2010 |
606
|
6,678
|
9.1%
|
2020 |
557
|
6,678
|
8.3%
|
| 2011 |
602
|
6,678
|
9.0%
|
2021 |
556
|
6,678
|
8.3%
|
| 2012 |
592
|
6,678
|
8.9%
|
2022 |
557
|
6,678
|
8.3%
|
| 2013 |
589
|
6,678
|
8.8%
|
2023 |
558
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2014 |
580
|
6,678
|
8.7%
|
2024 |
560
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2015 |
575
|
6,678
|
8.6%
|
2025 |
562
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2016 |
572
|
6,678
|
8.6%
|
2026 |
565
|
6,678
|
8.5%
|
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