Special Actuarial Study
for the
Golden Rain Foundation
Creekside Project Task Force /
January 25, 2007

Brian Quinn, Principal
Cindy Low, Senior Consultant & Actuary


Carlson, Quinn & Associates
  • Founded in 1994
  • Professional staff of 20 includes consultants, lawyers and actuaries with many years of experience
  • Provides clients with consulting, administrative & actuarial services, and legal compliance on their company benefit programs
  • Clients include for-profit, non-profit and publicly-traded companies, from 1-person sole proprietorship to companies with hundreds and thousands of employees
  • Clients are in a broad range of industries, including medical, law firms, retailers, foundations, construction and real estate

What is an Actuary?

  • A certified professional skilled in using mathematical models to manage financial risks
  • Trained and experienced in conducting financial projections and analyses
  • Works for consulting firms, insurance companies, government entities, corporations
Overview of Study
  • Objective – Estimate manor turnover rate over the next 20 years
  • Approach – Actuarial Science
  • Data Used
  • Assumptions for future experience
Approach to Study
Actuarial Science Approach
  1. Analyze resident data
  2. Review past turnover in manors
  3. Develop reasonable assumptions
  4. Build mathematical models that use statistical probabilities to forecast outcome
  5. Review preliminary results
  6. Fine-tune assumptions
  7. Finalize resultsData Used
Data Used
  • Current resident demographics
  • Historical turnover rates

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